Friends of Science Challenges Climate Risk Scenario Used in Canada

Friends of Science Society has issued an open letter to the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) claiming that the widely used climate scenario known as RCP 8.5 has effectively been sidelined by international climate modelling experts.

The organisation argues that the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario — often referred to by critics as the “climate emergency” scenario — has been deemed implausible by a climate sub-committee involved in developing future modelling frameworks for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).

The letter references commentary by Roger Pielke Jr., who recently wrote that updated climate scenario frameworks being prepared for the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (AR7) no longer rely on RCP 8.5 as a central projection.

According to Friends of Science Society, the use of RCP 8.5 in previous Canadian climate assessments influenced government climate policy and financial risk frameworks. The group specifically criticised the 2019 report Canada’s Changing Climate Report, which stated that Canada has been warming at roughly twice the global average rate.

The organisation also highlighted claims from researchers and commentators questioning the integrity of historical temperature records in Canada. This included work by former Bank of Canada data scientist Dr Joseph Hickey, who alleged that adjusted climate datasets contained unexplained temperature increases beginning in the late 1990s.

Friends of Science Society further referenced recent research by John Christy of the University of Alabama in Huntsville, which examined long-term US temperature extremes and reported declining trends in both hot and cold extremes across the contiguous United States.

The open letter also criticised current approaches to green finance and energy transition policy, arguing that fossil fuel infrastructure and conventional power generation remain essential for energy security. The group pointed to recent electricity disruptions in parts of Spain and Portugal as evidence of the risks associated with intermittent renewable energy systems without sufficient backup generation capacity.

Friends of Science Society said the issue is particularly relevant as Canada develops its green taxonomy framework for sustainable investment classifications, a process in which OSFI participates as an observer.