EU Emissions Rise Despite Modest GDP Growth in Q4 2025

The European Union recorded a 0.9% increase in seasonally adjusted greenhouse gas emissions in the fourth quarter of 2025, even as economic growth remained relatively subdued, according to new data published by Eurostat.

Total emissions across the EU economy reached an estimated 839 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent in Q4 2025, up from 832 million tonnes in the previous quarter. Over the same period, EU gross domestic product rose by just 0.2%, indicating emissions growth outpacing economic expansion in the short term.

The increase was driven primarily by higher emissions in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply sector, which rose by 7.2%, alongside growth in transport and storage at 1.3% and mining and quarrying at 0.9%. These gains were partially offset by declines in household emissions, which fell by 2.0%, and a marginal reduction in manufacturing emissions of 0.1%.

Compared with the fourth quarter of 2024, emissions increased by 0.4% while GDP rose by 1.5%, suggesting a modest decoupling trend over the longer comparison period, though with continued quarterly volatility across sectors.

Sectoral patterns varied significantly across member states, with emissions rising in 19 EU countries and falling in seven. The largest quarterly reductions were recorded in Finland, Malta and Czechia. Notably, all countries that reported emission declines still posted GDP growth over the same period.

The data highlights the continued sensitivity of emissions to energy supply dynamics, particularly in electricity generation, where fluctuations in fuel mix and demand remain key drivers of short-term changes.

The statistics are based on Eurostat’s seasonally adjusted estimates, which align greenhouse gas emissions with economic activity data and express emissions in CO2-equivalent terms under internationally recognised accounting standards.

The latest figures underline the persistent challenge of aligning short-term economic activity with consistent emissions reductions across the EU. While longer-term trends continue to suggest gradual decoupling of growth from emissions, quarterly volatility—especially in energy supply—indicates that progress toward the EU’s 2030 and 2050 climate targets will remain highly sensitive to power generation mix, industrial activity and energy price dynamics.