China sets 17% carbon intensity cut and 2,800GW renewables target to 2030
China’s State Council has issued its carbon peaking action plan for the 15th Five-Year Plan period, committing to cut carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 17% from 2025 levels by 2030 and to raise the non-fossil share of energy consumption to 25%, in the document that will govern the country’s decarbonisation programme through the end of the decade.
The plan describes the period as the decisive and most demanding phase for achieving the carbon peak, and frames the targets as laying the foundation for China’s 2035 nationally determined contribution and its longer-term carbon neutrality goal. Provincial governments are required to produce their own carbon peaking action plans setting local targets, with performance assessed under the existing comprehensive evaluation framework for carbon peaking and neutrality.
The energy targets are the most consequential. Combined wind and solar installed capacity is to reach at least 2.8 billion kilowatts by 2030, alongside roughly 410 million kilowatts of conventional hydropower and around 110 million kilowatts of operating nuclear capacity. The plan calls for clean energy bases across the northern wind and solar belt, integrated hydro-wind-solar development in the southwest, coastal nuclear and offshore wind, and integrated wind, solar, hydrogen, ammonia and methanol bases. It sets the principle that incremental electricity demand should be met by incremental clean generation.
System flexibility receives comparable attention. Pumped storage is targeted at around 160 million kilowatts by 2030 and new-type storage at 300 million kilowatts, with long-duration storage singled out for development. National virtual power plant regulation capacity is to exceed 50 million kilowatts and demand response capability to reach at least 5% of peak load. West-to-east transmission capacity is to expand by more than 80 million kilowatts through new ultra-high-voltage corridors.
On coal, the plan stops short of an absolute cap but directs reasonable control of coal power capacity and generation, with coal plants transitioning toward a supporting and balancing role. It requires low-carbon retrofits of coal units, heat and power decoupling for northern cogeneration plants where heating supply permits, and the complete phase-out of coal-fired boilers of 10 tonnes of steam per hour and below. Units failing environmental, energy consumption, coal use, safety or age requirements, including captive plants, are to be closed.
Industrial targets include a reduction of more than 17% in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of value added for above-scale industry, more than 10% in energy consumption per unit of value added, and around 10% in energy intensity of GDP, with retrofits delivering savings of more than 150 million tonnes of standard coal equivalent. The plan calls for construction of roughly 100 national-level zero-carbon industrial parks and around 500 zero-carbon factories, and requires new computing infrastructure to run primarily on non-fossil electricity.
For carbon markets, the plan directs expansion of the national emissions trading system to cover petrochemicals and chemicals, and states that sectors with relatively stable total emissions should be prioritised for absolute cap control, with allowance totals aligned to the dual-control targets for carbon. Free and paid allocation are to be combined. Covered sectors are to reduce carbon emissions per unit of product by around 3% over the period, with compliance rates held at a high level. The plan also commits to developing the national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction market and promoting use of CCER credits, and to strengthening coordination between the carbon market, green certificates and green power trading.
Other targets include a 3% reduction in direct carbon emissions per unit of building floor area, a new energy vehicle share of 30% of the vehicle fleet by 2030 and 25% for commercial transport vehicles, a 5% cut in energy use and 8.5% cut in emissions per unit floor area for public institutions, and national forest stock volume of 22.4 billion cubic metres.
Supporting measures include establishing a national low-carbon transition fund, building a national greenhouse gas emission factor database and carbon footprint background database, a unified product carbon labelling certification system, and a national sustainability disclosure standards framework. Carbon capture, utilisation and storage receives a single line directing exploratory demonstration projects, a notably restrained treatment relative to the attention given to renewables and storage.
